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Crude Oil Price: LIVE News & Forecast | Big Upside Rally Ahead?

Tensions in the Middle East are making the global energy market nervous. The price surge is because of a mix of political tensions and changes in oil supply. Ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas, along with uncertainty about peace talks, are causing prices to go up and down a lot.



Oil Price Movement

  • Brent and U.S. Benchmark: This week, the price of Brent crude oil increased by more than 1%, and the U.S. benchmark for oil rose by about 3%.

Tensions in the Middle East

  • Impact on Crude Prices: The possibility of a larger conflict in the Middle East contributed to the rise in crude oil prices.

  • Thursday's Events: Hezbollah, a group in Lebanon, launched numerous rockets at a town in northern Israel as a response to the killing of 10 civilians in southern Lebanon. This incident marked the deadliest day for Lebanese civilians in four months of cross-border tensions. Additionally, Gaza's largest hospital faced difficulties due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Hamas group, with Israeli warplanes targeting Rafah, a key area for Palestinians.

Threats in the Red Sea

  • Missile Attack: A missile fired from Yemen hit a tanker carrying crude oil bound for India in the Red Sea, raising concerns about the safety of oil transportation in the region.

Economic Impact

  • Producer Prices and Retail Sales: In January, the prices of goods and services produced in the U.S. rose more than expected. This increase, particularly in service costs, raised concerns about inflation. However, a decline in retail sales led some to hope that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates soon. Such a move could boost oil demand by stimulating economic activity.

  • Investor Response: Despite optimism about potential rate cuts on Thursday, investors began adjusting their positions ahead of a long weekend in the U.S.

Global Oil Demand Outlook

  • IEA's Forecast: The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand growth is losing momentum. They adjusted their forecast for 2024, now expecting growth to slow down to 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd), half of last year's growth. This deceleration is partly due to a significant decrease in Chinese oil consumption compared to previous projections.

OPEC's Long-Term Perspective

  • Continued Growth: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) anticipates that oil usage will continue to rise over the next two decades, despite short-term fluctuations and regional tensions.

Further tensions may result in sharp rally in crude oil price.


Do not forget to watch below video for your learnings-



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Crude Oil Price- Know Details:

Crude oil futures play a pivotal role in the global financial markets, serving as a benchmark for energy prices and a vital component of various investment portfolios. These futures contracts provide a mechanism for market participants to hedge against or speculate on the future price movements of crude oil. In this comprehensive discussion, we'll explore the intricacies of crude oil futures, their significance, and the factors influencing their prices.

Overview of Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures are standardized agreements to buy or sell a specific quantity of crude oil at a predetermined price on a future date. These contracts are traded on commodity exchanges, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude being the most widely used benchmarks. Each futures contract typically represents 1,000 barrels of oil, and they are traded in terms of U.S. dollars per barrel.

Market Participants and Hedging

One of the primary purposes of crude oil futures is to provide a hedging mechanism for businesses exposed to the volatility of oil prices. Participants in the energy sector, including producers, refineries, and transportation companies, use these futures contracts to mitigate the risk of adverse price movements. For example, an oil producer may sell futures contracts to lock in a predetermined price for their future production, ensuring a level of certainty in revenue.

Speculation and Investment

Apart from hedging, crude oil futures attract a significant number of speculators and investors seeking to capitalize on price fluctuations. Traders can take both long and short positions, allowing them to profit from rising or falling oil prices. The leverage provided in futures trading magnifies potential returns but also increases the risk of significant losses, making it a high-stakes market.

Influencing Factors

Several factors influence the prices of crude oil futures, creating a dynamic and complex market environment. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in government policies, can lead to sudden and substantial price movements. Additionally, economic indicators, including global demand, supply disruptions, and inventories, play a crucial role in determining oil prices.

Global Demand and Supply Dynamics

The balance between global oil demand and supply is a fundamental driver of crude oil prices. Factors such as economic growth, industrial activity, and transportation needs directly impact demand. On the supply side, geopolitical tensions, production decisions by major oil-producing countries, and unexpected disruptions in oil production can affect the availability of crude oil in the market.

Role of OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plays a central role in influencing crude oil prices. OPEC member countries collectively control a significant portion of the world's oil reserves, and their production decisions can have a substantial impact on global supply. OPEC meetings and announcements regarding production quotas often lead to market volatility as traders and investors adjust their positions based on anticipated changes in supply levels.


Do not forget to watch below video for your learnings-

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